![]() In addition, late last year, Counterpoint Research predicted that 2023 will see smartphone replacement cycles increase to 43 months on average, the highest ever level.Īll this indicates that consumers are reluctant to splash out on a new handset at the moment, and when they do, they are increasingly inclined to try and save some money by looking for a refurbished model. Trade-in values for handsets climbed too, with the average for iPhones topping $200 for the first time. IDC’s pessimism is hardly surprising given some of the other stats that have been coming out lately.Īccording to Assurant’s latest Mobile Trade-in and Upgrade Industry Trends report, published last week, the average age of traded-in smartphones was 3.35 years in Q1, compared to 3.26 years in Q4 2022. However, even by 2027, shipment volumes won’t quite have returned to where they were in 2021 (see chart). ![]() IDC expects the market to embark on a long road to recovery from next year. “Channel inventory remains elevated in many regions and while things have improved, the confidence from suppliers is still low,” said Ryan Reith, group vice president of Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers at IDC. IDC now reckons global shipments will total 1.17 billion, which equates to a 3.2% decline on last year, compared to its previous forecast of a 1.1% decline. If 2022 was a year of excess inventory, 2023 is a year of caution.” “Consumer demand is recovering much slower than expected in all regions, including China. “Our conversations with channels, supply chain partners, and major OEMs all point to recovery being pushed further out and a weaker second half of the year,” said Nabila Popal research director for IDC’s Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers, in a research note last week. ![]() Last week, IDC said that even this forecast was a little optimistic. The picture was already looking bleak back in February, when the same outfit predicted that shipments would fall this year to 1.19 billion from 1.2 billion in 2022. ![]() Weak consumer demand has led analyst firm IDC to lower its outlook for the global smartphone market. ![]()
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